Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-02-01 10.330692 12.686173 15.323156 18.474680 22.118446 26.178618 31.023702
2026-02-08 6.751725 9.658624 13.296338 18.098677 24.180476 31.531845 40.986079
2026-02-15 4.720422 7.683381 11.745784 17.542007 25.399086 35.467740 49.106492
2026-02-22 3.722628 6.760455 11.251711 18.067535 27.801705 40.830943 59.158907
2026-03-01 2.823262 5.725369 10.346063 17.781402 28.924174 44.435446 66.994439
2026-03-08 2.226786 5.011751 9.759301 17.808741 30.387387 48.491710 75.566413
2026-03-15 1.649926 4.167125 8.786076 17.057212 30.545625 50.617866 81.470525
2026-03-22 1.384839 3.844845 8.633108 17.579958 32.651954 55.647572 91.716857
2026-03-29 1.140550 3.493909 8.357385 17.835721 34.314938 60.065659 101.238370
2026-04-05 0.951731 3.210319 8.153304 18.173043 36.104924 64.737829 111.311389
2026-04-12 0.798926 2.965764 7.979511 18.529343 37.926682 69.522785 121.727936
2026-04-19 0.618071 2.580948 7.435884 18.107040 38.345068 72.063132 128.762778
2026-04-26 0.499268 2.340954 7.196166 18.310994 39.997244 76.872807 139.865920
2026-05-03 0.374037 2.021608 6.707078 17.950136 40.604878 80.017918 148.532145
2026-05-10 0.270620 1.714395 6.169303 17.397957 40.782703 82.415619 156.063554
2026-05-17 0.225352 1.606828 6.127105 17.920141 43.044948 88.484083 169.818006
2026-05-24 0.166963 1.399176 5.755366 17.635864 43.686160 91.735329 179.010000
2026-05-31 0.128571 1.255811 5.532001 17.663026 44.939701 96.112901 190.235223
2026-06-07 0.086113 1.041847 5.024813 16.916389 44.524464 97.438668 196.298873
2026-06-14 0.071094 0.985447 5.019944 17.435728 46.804016 103.790644 211.218629
2026-06-21 0.055758 0.907732 4.919508 17.689831 48.524848 109.170212 224.615968
2026-06-28 0.044188 0.844293 4.853233 18.024972 50.440318 114.987679 238.959484
2026-07-05 0.034978 0.787697 4.796986 18.378977 52.416793 120.994303 253.815864